Future climate change is expected to impact on rice (Oryza sativa L.) productivity. The study tried to investigate the impact of climate change and variability on past and future rice (Oryza sativa L.) productivity in Fogera plain. In this study, long-term observed climate data (1993–2022) and projected (2025–2086) rainfall and temperature used to analyze change and variability, projected change and impact on rice yield. Variability was analyzed through coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and Standard anomaly index. Whereas trend was analyzed through Sen’s slop, percent change and Modified Mann kandel test. CMhyd software were used for both extracted Netcdf file and bias correction the future precipitation and temperature for three shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-2.6 (sustainable / with climate policies), SSP2-4.5 (medium) and SSP5-8.5(worst / in the absence of climate policies) of future socioeconomic conditions. The start, length of kiremt season and maximum temperature coefficient of variation was less than 10% in the plain. In Fogera plain over all mean precipitation concentration index were 23.1 which show very high concentrations of annual rainfall distribution. The annual and kiremt season rainfall insignificantly increase in Wereta and Addis Zemen but significant decreasing in Wanzaye. Late start of season (SOS) and decreasing in length of growing season was observed in the plain. Annual rainfall totals decreasing in Addis Zemen station in all scenarios except SSP58.5(2056-2086) but annual rainfall at Wereta station and Wanzaye stations is expected to increase by SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 both in 2025-2055 and 2056-2086. Projected change of annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperature showed rise in under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 by 2025-2055 and 2056-2086 in the plain. Rice yields showed positive correlation with length and end of growing season. Rice yields showed negative correlation with onset of season, maximum and minimum temperature in all stations. The rice yield variation in Wanzaye, Wereta and Addis Zemen station were explained jointly by 77%, 62% and 64% of the rainfall and temperature variables while the remaining 23%, 38 % and 36% of the variations could be by other factors. The simulated yield of rice is varied with location and type of scenarios used in the future. Yield of rice would be expected to increase under the SSP1-2.6 scenario in all growing locations but decrease under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in all growing locations of Fogera plain.