Abstract:
This study explores the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall patterns in Ethiopian basins
using 43 years of observation and satellite data, crucial for water resource management and
agricultural productivity. Utilizing gauge data, CHIRPS, and TAMSAT, the study identifies the
Kiremt season (June to September) as the primary rainfall period, particularly in the western
basins such as Abay and Baro, while highlighting unique rainfall patterns in the Genale Dawa
basin, which receives 30% of its annual precipitation during the Bega (October to January) and
54% during the Belg (February to May) seasons. The Tekeze-Mereb basin receives 80% of its
annual precipitation during the Kiremt season. The spatial analysis reveals complex nationwide
rainfall patterns, with the annual mean precipitation centered in the southwestern part of the
country and a mean inter-annual variability of 26%. According to CHIRPS 0.05º gridded
precipitation data, the Kiremt season contributes 53% to the annual mean rainfall, with the Abay
Basin receiving the largest share (39.5%), while the Bega and Belg seasons contribute 16% and
31%, respectively. Trend analysis indicates notable changes in rainfall patterns, emphasizing the
need for adaptive water management strategies to address climate variability. A significant aspect
of this study is the analysis of the correlation between wind speed and monthly precipitation.
Pearson correlation analysis using ERA5 and MERRA-2 datasets reveals significant influences of
upper-level winds at 200-hPa on precipitation variability with a 1–2-month lead time.
Recommendations include developing localized climate adaptation strategies and incorporating
200-hPa wind anomalies with a 1–2-month lead time in weather forecasting and seasonal climate
outlook methods to enhance rainfall prediction accuracy.