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| dc.contributor.author | Mulatu Adane | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-02T08:11:32Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-02T08:11:32Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024-11 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://ir.bdu.edu.et/handle/123456789/16914 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Changes in precipitation and temperature would influence human and natural systems. Therefore, evaluating local rainfall and temperature trends is crucial to planning and implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study aimed to analyze historical and projected trends of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature in the North Gojjam sub-basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia. Observed data from six meteorological stations obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute from 1986 to 2022, and projection data downloaded from CMIP6 ensemble mean models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (20712100). Observed data quality was ensured through outlier detection and homogeneity tests, as well as bias correction employed for projected climate data. Thiessen polygons method applied to converted point data to areal mean data for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The Modified Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator in R software were used to examine the statistical significance and magnitude of these trends. The results revealed significant positive trends in historical rainfall during the Belg, Kiremt, and annual periods, while the Bega season showed a non-significant increase. Trends for historical Tmax and Tmin also exhibited a general increase, with Tmin showing a more pronounced change. Future rainfall also projected significantly upward trend, except for the mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which had non-significant trends. Likewise, projected temperature trend indicated warming for both Tmax and Tmin in mid-century and late-century time frames. Therefore, this study result confirming overall increasing trends in historical and projected precipitation and temperatures in the study sub-basin. This implies climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies such as soil and water conservation, afforestation and reforestation, using renewable energy sources, and enhancing farmers capacity to wards early warning system are very crucial to overcome the impacts of changing climate. | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.subject | Environment and climate change | en_US |
| dc.title | Historical and Projected Trends of Precipitation and temperature in North Gojjam Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |
