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| dc.contributor.author | Demis Shitaye | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-02T07:27:04Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-02T07:27:04Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025-02 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://ir.bdu.edu.et/handle/123456789/16906 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Climate change trends and variability, particularly in rainfall and temperature patterns, present significant challenges to understanding and mitigating environmental impacts. These challenges are particularly evident in regions like the East Gojjam Zone. Therefore, the current study was conducted to evaluate historical and project future climate trends in East Gojjam, North Eastern Ethiopia. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to analyze historical rainfall and temperature trends at both monthly and annual scales using climate data from four stations (Motta, D/Work, Dejen, and D/Markos). To examine rainfall variability the coefficient of variation, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index, and standard precipitation index were used. To evaluate and project CMhyd software was used to perform bias correction and extraction of simulated data for the historical period (1984 to 2014) and for future periods (2015 to 2100). The findings revealed that D/Work station has the highest rainfall variability, whereas, the remaining stations showed positive and negative rainfall anomaly indexes across the stations. The precipitation concentration index analysis revealed that most stations, except for D/Markos, experienced irregular rainfall distributions from 16 to 20. The standard precipitation index indicates a predominance of below-normal rainfall across all stations suggests increasing drought risks. All stations, except Motta, showed a significant increasing trend in mean annual rainfall. For future climate projections MIROC6 was the best-performing models for simulating rainfall and FGOLAS-g3 was selected for Tmax and Tmin simulation. After evaluating historical trends, the study assessed future climate projections to understand potential changes in rainfall and temperature under different SSP scenarios. The projections indicated that a potential decrease in annual rainfall for the Motta and D/Markos stations in the near term, whereas D/Work and Dejen were expected to increase. In the late century, a similar trend was observed, with expected decreases in annual rainfall for Motta and D/Markos, contrasted by increases for D/Work and Dejen. The temperature projections indicated a continuous increase in maximum and minimum temperatures across all stations under the five scenarios. The study underscores the need for localized climate model evaluations to enhance adaptation strategies. The findings provide critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop climateresilient interventions in East Gojjam. | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.subject | Environment and climate change | en_US |
| dc.title | Historical and Future Climate Trends in East Gojjam Zone: A CMIP6-Based Analysis | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |
