Abstract:
Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae, poses a global health challenge
with 1.3 to 4 million cases and up to 143,000 deaths annually. In Ethiopia, cholera has been
a persistent epidemic. This study introduces the SVIQRS-B model to analyze cholera trans mission, which includes direct and indirect transmission pathways, incorporating vaccination,
quarantine, and WaSH practices, and hypothesizing that recovered individuals can become sus ceptible again. The project aims to provide insights into cholera transmission patterns, identify
outbreak drivers, and assess the effectiveness of control measures, thereby informing prevention
and control strategies in Ethiopia. Data was collected from the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia
(MOH) reports, WHO reports, and published articles. MATLAB software facilitated data sim ulation and analysis. The model’s basic reproduction number (R0) was computed. Stability
analysis indicated that both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are locally and globally
asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number is less than one and greater than
one, respectively. Numerical simulations highlighted the impact of interventions, emphasizing
the importance of rapid quarantine, increased vaccination, and environmental sanitation in con trolling outbreaks. The study recommends further research with stochastic modeling to capture
the complexity of cholera transmission in Ethiopia’s diverse geographical landscape.