Mathematical Modeling of Cholera Transmission Dynamics in Ethiopia

Ermias Alemayehu

dc.contributor.author	Ermias Alemayehu
dc.date.accessioned	2024-07-24T10:40:59Z
dc.date.available	2024-07-24T10:40:59Z
dc.date.issued	2024-06
dc.identifier.uri	http://ir.bdu.edu.et/handle/123456789/15898
dc.description.abstract	Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae, poses a global health challenge with 1.3 to 4 million cases and up to 143,000 deaths annually. In Ethiopia, cholera has been a persistent epidemic. This study introduces the SVIQRS-B model to analyze cholera trans mission, which includes direct and indirect transmission pathways, incorporating vaccination, quarantine, and WaSH practices, and hypothesizing that recovered individuals can become sus ceptible again. The project aims to provide insights into cholera transmission patterns, identify outbreak drivers, and assess the effectiveness of control measures, thereby informing prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia. Data was collected from the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia (MOH) reports, WHO reports, and published articles. MATLAB software facilitated data sim ulation and analysis. The model’s basic reproduction number (R0) was computed. Stability analysis indicated that both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are locally and globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number is less than one and greater than one, respectively. Numerical simulations highlighted the impact of interventions, emphasizing the importance of rapid quarantine, increased vaccination, and environmental sanitation in con trolling outbreaks. The study recommends further research with stochastic modeling to capture the complexity of cholera transmission in Ethiopia’s diverse geographical landscape.	en_US
dc.language.iso	en_US	en_US
dc.subject	Mathematics	en_US
dc.title	Mathematical Modeling of Cholera Transmission Dynamics in Ethiopia	en_US
dc.type	Thesis	en_US