Abstract:
Statistical Signal Processing basically refers to the analysis of random signals using appropriate
statistical techniques. Statistical approaches are crucial in signal processing when signals are
stochastic. The development of acceptable methodologies for estimating model parameters, the
evaluation of model performances, and the design of suitable models to explain the behavior of the
system all make use of statistics. Machine learning and statistical approaches have been receiving
extensive attention from both the academia and industry, and its foundation lies in statistics. We
found unutilized meteorological data recorded for 36 years in Bahir Dar Meteorological Agency
which has not been used for any kind of analysis or prediction which is important to minimize the
difficulty of weather prediction and Risks of extreme weather conditions like floods and droughts.
The need for accurate time-series analysis for this data is very necessary and demanding to show
the temperature, rainfall, drought, flooding and other weather patterns in the region.
This thesis presents a unique statistical, classical machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL)
modeling approach for analyzing temperature and rainfall time series prediction retrievals using
meteorological variable observations from automatic weather stations. The study uses models
based on statistical time series (ARIMA), machine learning (SVM), KNN, random forest (RF),
and deep learning (MLP, GRU, LSTM) algorithms. The goodness-of-fit and performance of these
models were validated using metrics such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Root
Mean Square Error, Coefficient of Determination, learning curves, and computational complexity.
The results show that ML models outperform statistical models in temperature prediction, while
SVR outperforms ARIMA, KNN, and RF in loss metrics. KNN outperforms ARIMA, SVR, and
RF in rainfall prediction, while ARIMA outperforms SVR by 12.2%. Overall, MLP and KNN
are the best signal processing models for temperature and rainfall time series prediction.
Keywords: DL, ML, Statistical signal Processing,Time series, Weather