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Climate change and variability are the concomitant serious global problems which cause smallholder farmers to remain vulnerable for various shocks across the world. The consequence of the problem is worst in developing countries. Despite the mitigating and adapting efforts of the government and smallholder farmers, Ethiopia is not exceptionally left from the impact of climate change problem. Therefore, this study aims to investigate smallholder farmers’ vulnerability and their coping strategies for climate change and variability. The data were collected through household survey from 646 households and focus group discussions sampled from the Dega, Woina Dega, and kola agroecology. Additionally, temperature data from the National Meteorological Agency's Bahir-Dar sub-office and rainfall data from gird data (CHIRPS data set) were collected and validated with neighboring stations. To analyze the data, the study employed descriptive analysis and binary and multi-variate probit econometric model to examine factors that influence farmers' decisions to choose ex-ante and ex-post coping strategies respectively, as well as the protection motivation theory and livelihood vulnerability framework for vulnerability analysis. The Mann-Kendall Trend Test was used to analyze temperature and precipitation trends.; The result of the study revealed that all agro-ecological zones are experiencing a substantial yearly increment in temperature, and varied rainfall pattern. The overall livelihood vulnerability index scores indicate that Kolla households are the most vulnerable followed by Dega and Woina-Dega households. Small-holder farmers' decisions towards ex-ante coping strategies adoption were depend on: extension service, tropical livestock unit, crop diversity index, risk probability perception, risk impact perception, response efficacy perception, self-efficacy, and per capita expenditure. On the other hand, smallholders were adopting, ex-post coping strategies based on market distance, gender, land holding, farm size, market distance, road distance, water distance to home, climate information, agro-ecology, family size, tropical livestock unit, crop diversity index, and dependency ratio. To lessen households' vulnerability to the adverse consequences of climate change and promote the use of ex-ante coping mechanisms, government initiatives in the areas of agro-forestation and infrastructural developments with giving special attention to Kolla and Dega agroecological zones are required. |
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