Abstract:
Among the viral diseases, rabies is unique and affects all warm-blooded animals which is
endemic in Ethiopia. An outbreak follow-up study was undertaken from September 2019 to
May 2020 in Libo Kemkem district, South Gondar Zone, Ethiopia to determine transmission
dynamics of rabies outbrears in dogs. Data was collected through direct outbreak follow up
and face to face interview. The transmission rate was determined using a generalized linear
model (GLM) based on a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic model.
Basic reproduction ratio (R0) was determined from the transmission dynamics and
final size of rabies outbreaks in dogs and cattle. The per day average transmission
rate (β) and R0 of rabies among dogs were 0.19 and 1.15 respectively. From a total of 891
heads of cattle at risk, 115(12.9%) were affected by rabies during the outbreaks period. The
highest and least values of R0 (1.11 and 1.02) were observed at Agta and Yifag kebeles
respectively. Moreover, out of 279 dog bitten humans, 230 (82.4%), were treated by
traditional medicine (healers), 31 (11.1%) have taken Post exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and
18 (6.5%), did nothing. Dog bitten humans were different across body parts, highest (55.9%)
of bites recorded on the legs and lowest (2.2%) on the head region as compared other parts of
the body. From those, five individuals (four who had followed traditional medicine and one
from doing nothing) were died by rabies during the outbreaks. The herd immunity threshold
level of rabies in the study area was 13% and at least more than 13% of dogs should get
vaccine to overcome the outbreaks if and only if the vaccine is solid. Inconclussion, the study
population were highly affected during December and February in study area. Therefore, dog
vaccination at early stage of rabies outbreaks should be implemented to mitigate rabies
outbreaks.
Key words: Dogs, rabies outbreaks, SEIR epidemic model, transmission dynamics