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| dc.contributor.author | Gebru Kassaw | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-11T08:00:32Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-01-11T08:00:32Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-01-11 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://ir.bdu.edu.et/handle/123456789/11840 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Projection of future climate changes is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional level aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation and near-surface air temperature in Ethiopia using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation and near-surface air temperature in Ethiopia are projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The results of future projected seasonal and mean annual surface air maximum temperature shows an increasing trend for all RCPs scenarios with RCP8.5 (very high emission scenario) prevails higher change in mean annual surface air maximum temperature trend at the end of the century with the rates of 0.4°C than the RCP6.0, 4.5 (an intermediate emission scenario) with (0.28°C and 0.24°C) and RCP2.6 (very low emission scenario) increases with rates of 0.12°C (10 yr.)−1 respectively. The future mean annual surface air minimum temperature projections for Ethiopia indicate that the RCP8.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios exhibit a consistent increase in annual near-surface air temperature during the twenty-first century at a rate of 0.44°C and 0.25°C (10 yr.)−1, respectively. The lowest-emission mitigation scenario, RCP4.5, RCP2.6, produces the lowest rate of warming [0.24°C and 0.12°C (10 yr.) −1] respectively. Projections of future total annual precipitation in Ethiopia indicate that in the RCP8.5 scenario experiences a mean annual precipitation increase during the twenty-first century by a rate of 10.86mm (10 yr.)−1. The medium and lowest-emission mitigation scenario, (RCP6.0, RCP4.5), and RCP2.6, produces the lowest rate of precipitation [5.6mm, 4.23mm, and 3.6mm (10 yr.) −1] respectively. The variation was observed from one month to another and also from one RCPs scenario to another. KEYWORD: climate projection, Ethiopia, precipitation, temperature, Trend. | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.subject | ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE CHANGE | en_US |
| dc.title | PROJECTION OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER ETHIOPIA BY USING CMIP5 (Can ESM and Had ESM) MODELS AND RCP SCENARIOS | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |
