Abstract:
The rise of China in Africa has become a significant topic in both academic and policy circles.
While much of the literature emphasizes China's economic interests, particularly access to
resources, this study contends that China's engagement extends beyond economics, serving to
expand its geopolitical influence and counterbalance Western dominance. This study used
Ethiopia–China relations as a case study. Accordingly, the overall objective was to examine the
geopolitical determinants of Ethiopia–China relations in the context of the post-1991 Horn of
Africa (HoA). To achieve this, I adopted a qualitative research approach and collected data from
both primary and secondary sources. The findings are as follows: 1) Diplomatic Gateway:
Ethiopia, as Africa’s diplomatic hub hosting key regional and international organisations, acts as
a strategic entry point for China’s diplomatic and business ventures. This has not only showcased
China’s success in Africa but also brought significant economic and political advantages to
Ethiopia through deeper bilateral ties. 2) Regional Influence: Ethiopia’s independence and its
prominent role in African diplomacy allow China to project its influence and counter adversaries
in the HoA, which Ethiopia has leveraged to strengthen its internal stability and regional standing.
3) Mutual Support on Global Platforms: China benefits from Ethiopia and Africa’s support in
global reforms and resisting Western pressures, while Ethiopia and Africa rely on China to help
mitigate external criticisms and pressures. 4) Governance Model Alignment: The Ethiopian
government’s adoption of China’s developmental state model aligned with China’s interest in
promoting its model across Africa, thereby significantly strengthening Ethiopia–China relations.
5) Strategic Partnership in Development: Ethiopia’s need for reliable partners in its development
agenda aligns seamlessly with China’s 'Go Out' strategy, further cementing their partnership. 6)
Security Partnership: To protect its overseas interests, counter Western accusations of being an
irresponsible global actor, and enhance its military capacity, China began partnering with key
actors in the HoA and Africa. Ethiopia emerged as a key partner due to its anchor position, military
strength, and stabilising role in the sub-region—a partnership that also aligns with Ethiopia’s own
interests, given its vulnerability as a country located at the heart of a conflict-prone region. These
geopolitical factors forged a close partnership between the two states, aligning their positions on
various national, regional, and international issues. The study illustrates this through two case
studies—the Nile/GERD dispute and the Northern Ethiopia conflict—both of which became
geopolitical battlegrounds for competing global powers. While the West backed Egypt in the first
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case and the TPLF in the second, China largely supported the Ethiopian government in both
instances. In conclusion, Ethiopia–China relations are shaped not only by economic interests but,
more significantly, by geopolitical considerations