Abstract:
Rapid urbanization in Ethiopia has intensified the expansion of informal settlements that hinders
the implementation of smart urban planning, particularly in fast-growing cities such as Bahir
Dar. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal expansion of informal settlements and examine
the challenges to implement smart City planning in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia, using Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques from 2004 to 2024. This study focuses
on identifying the institutional and socioeconomic factors influencing their growth, and
evaluating the constraints and opportunities for integrating smart urban planning approaches. A
mixed research approach was employed; a cross-sectional survey design was used to collect
quantitative and qualitative data through questionnaires, field observations, and GPS-based
ground truthing, from satellite imageries (historical Landsat images). A total of 400 respondents
were selected using a combination of simple random and purposive sampling techniques. Spatial
data were analyzed using GIS-based land use/land cover classification and change detection
techniques, while survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies and
percentages. The results show a rapid and continuous expansion of informal settlements from
10.38 km2 (4.86%) in 2004 to, 22.93 km2 (10.74 %) in 2014, and 41.95 km2 (19.66%) in 2024,
indicating significant conversion of other land uses (farmland, wetland, grassland and forest)
into informal areas over time. Spatial analysis reveals that informal settlements appeared in
environmentally sensitive lands, progressively expanded into dense and peripheral clusters,
particularly in western, southwestern and northeastern parts of the city. The findings further
indicate that rural–urban migration, rapid population growth, high land costs, weak governance
and limited access to formal housing are the main drivers of informal settlement expansion.
Institutional weaknesses, including poor policy implementation, weak coordination, and
ineffective land administration systems, significantly contribute to uncontrolled urban growth.
Additionally, most informal settlements lack basic infrastructure and services such as roads,
sanitation, and water supply. Based on the findings, the study recommends that the government
should strengthen land administration systems through transparent and digital land registration,
enforce urban planning regulations consistently, and expand affordable housing programs to
reduce pressure on informal land occupation.