Abstract:
Climate variability and change pose significant challenges to agricultural production,
ecosystem sustainability, and rural livelihoods in Ethiopia. Understanding climate trends,
local perceptions, ecosystem resilience, and the climate mitigation potential of natural
resources is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This
dissertation investigated climate variability, community perceptions, woody plant diversity,
and the climate change mitigation potential of church forest ecosystems across
agroecological zones in Jabitehinan District, Northwest Ethiopia. The study employed a
mixed-methods research approach integrating meteorological, socioeconomic, ecological,
and carbon stock data. Historical climate records from six meteorological stations obtained
from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall
trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, precipitation concentration index, and spatial interpolation
techniques. Household survey data were collected from 361 farmers selected through a twostage
sampling procedure, complemented by key informant interviews and focus group
discussions. Ecological data were gathered from four church forests distributed across semiarid,
sub-humid, and temperate-highland agroecological zones using systematically
established vegetation plots. Woody species composition, diversity, structure, regeneration
status, and carbon stock were assessed through field measurements and standard ecological
and biomass estimation methods. The climate analysis revealed declining rainfall trends
across seasons, with annual rainfall decreasing at a rate of 0.0122 mm, while mean annual
temperature increased by 0.206°C. Maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures increased
by 0.014°C, 0.029°C, and 0.037°C per decade, respectively. Spatial analysis showed
considerable variation in rainfall distribution, with the highest annual rainfall occurring in
the upper highlands. Farmers widely perceived declining and increasingly erratic rainfall,
delayed onset and early cessation of rainy seasons, rising temperatures, and shifting planting
periods. Perceptions varied significantly among agroecological zones, with semi-arid
communities reporting stronger climate-related changes. Gender, education, access to
irrigation, training opportunities, climate information, indigenous knowledge, and extension
services significantly influenced climate change awareness. Ecological assessment identified
49 woody species belonging to 35 families across the three church forests. Fabaceae,
Euphorbiaceae, Cupressaceae, and Oleaceae were the dominant families. Shannon–Wiener
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diversity values ranged from 2.58 to 3.29, indicating moderate to high species diversity.
Forest structural analysis showed dominance of individuals in lower height classes, while
diameter class distributions varied among forests. Three church forests exhibited good
regeneration status, whereas one showed fair regeneration, demonstrating the important role
of church forests in conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem integrity. Carbon
stock assessment demonstrated significant variation among agroecological zones. Church
forests in the semi-arid zone stored substantially higher carbon than those in the sub-humid
and temperate-highland zones. Mean aboveground, belowground, and total carbon stocks
across the study area were 33.4 t ha⁻¹, 8.3 t ha⁻¹, and 41.8 t ha⁻¹, respectively. Analysis of
variance indicated significant differences in carbon storage among agroecological zones (F
= 3.54, p < 0.033). These findings confirm that church forests contribute not only to
biodiversity conservation but also to climate change mitigation through carbon
sequestration. The study demonstrates that Jabitehinan District is experiencing noticeable
climate variability characterized by declining rainfall and rising temperatures, which are
widely recognized by local communities. At the same time, church forests serve as important
ecological refuges that conserve woody plant diversity, support forest regeneration, and
provide measurable carbon sequestration benefits. Strengthening climate-smart agricultural
practices, enhancing climate information services, promoting environmental education, and
supporting community-based conservation of church forests are essential for improving
resilience and advancing sustainable climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in Northwest
Ethiopia.