Abstract:
Groundwater is an important water resource and needs more attention on its vulnerability to overexploitation, pollution and, especially, climate change. Studying impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge is important in the watershed to alleviate effects of climate change in groundwater recharge. In order to utilize the Groundwater resource properly and sustainably knowledge of the available groundwater and surface water resources and the capacity to use them is necessary. The aim of this study is to evaluate how climate change affect the groundwater recharge in the Blue Nile river basin of Gumara and Ribb watersheds. Bias corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) projection data set at Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP4.5 and SSP8.5) were used for future groundwater recharge estimation at three time horizons (2030s, 2050s and 2090s) and base period of (1995-2014). The result of the Mann-Kendall trend test showed that mean annual minimum and maximum temperature are found to increase by (1.20c, 3.10c) and (2.80c, 4.80c) at SSP2-4.5 and SSP2-8.5 scenarios respectively, on 2090s from the baseline period. A hydrological model, (WetSpass-M) performance was assessed through manual calibration process, and R2 and NSE were obtained for the Gumara watershed (0.84, 0.83) during calibration and (0.83, 0.81) during validation respectively. During the calibration and validation process in Ribb watershed, R2 and NSE were (0.63, 0.61) and (0.62, 0.6) respectively. Even though consistent trend was not found in Rainfall, mean annual groundwater recharge of Gumara and Ribb watershed would reduce from (394.36 mm to 363.16mm, 358.40mm and 352.24mm) and from( 394.36 mm to 361.9mm,339.7 mm and 338.6mm) at SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, on 2030s,2050s and 2090s from the baseline period respectively for Gumara watershed. Similarly, Ribb watershed would reduce from (420.71 mm to 390.15 mm, 383.76mm and 381.74mm) and from( 420.71 mm to 382.88 mm, 371.89mm and 367.98 mm) at SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, on 2030s,2050s and 2090s from the baseline period respectively. Consequently, the study concluded that the groundwater recharge would reduce by 10.68% and 14.13% on 2090s from the baseline at SSP4.5 SSP8.5 scenarios respectively for Gumara watershed and 9.3% and 12.5% for Ribb watershed on 2090s from the baseline period at SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios respectively.
Keywords: climate change; groundwater recharge; downscaling; WetSpass-M model.