Abstract:
Climate change is serious issue for Ethiopia which needs special attention. The aim of this study is to evaluate how climate change affect the water resource in the Blue Nile river basin of the Chemoga-Yeda watershed in Ethiopia. A hydrological model, (SWAT) performance was assessed through multisite calibration process, and R2 and NSE were obtained for the Chemoga watershed (0.89, 0.89) during calibration and (0.85, 0.84) during validation respectively. During the calibration and validation process in Yeda watershed, R2 and NSE were (0.78, 0.77) and (0.82, 0.81) respectively. Bias corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) projection data set at Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP4.5 and SSP8.5) were used for trend analysis and future stream flow generation at three future time horizons ( 2030s, 2050s and 2090s) and base period of (1995-2014). The result of the Mann-Kendall trend test showed that mean annual minimum and maximum temperature are found to increase by (2.30c, 4.750c) and (2.710c, 4.74 0c) at SSP2-4.5 and SSP2-8.5 scenarios respectively, on 2090s from the baseline period. Even though consistent trend was not found in precipitation, mean annual stream flow of Chemoga and Yeda river could potentially reduce from (12.38 m 3/s to 8.023 m 3/s, 12.38 m 3/s to 7.703 m 3/s) and (8.92 m 3/s to 6.67 m 3/s, 8.92 m 3/s to 6.48 m 3/s) at SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, on 2090s from the baseline period. The model simulated PET for Chemoga and Yeda watersheds at the baseline period were (91.72 mm/day, 94.4 mm/day) and the projected value of PET on 2090s at SSP5-8.5 were (98.77mm/day, 108.52 mm/day) respectively. The Chemoga-Yeda reservoir's time-based reliability averages out to be more than 83% for both SSPs and the baseline period. The resilience values for the baseline period and SSPs were both higher than 77%. For all climate scenarios, the dimensionless vulnerability displays a value less than 11%. Consequently, it can be said that the planned hydropower project has a greater capacity to meet the required target demand.