Abstract:
The decline of ecosystem services has emerged as a critical issue in the 21st century because of
different antropogenic factors.This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem
services in the Geray swamp area, utilizing geospatial and socioeconomic data. By identifying
various ecosystem services and analyzing the drivers of change, the research aims to fill
knowledge gaps and enhance understanding of how human activities impact these vital
ecosystems. To achieve the research objective, an explanatory sequential mixed research design
and systematic random sampling technique was applied. The research result shows that land use
and land cover changes reveal significant transformations, including a reduction in swamp
area,open water and vegetation areas, alongside an increase in built-up and cultivated lands.
Specifically, the swamp area decreased by 53.69%, while built-up areas increase by 501.92%. The
spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services using the lense of indices such as the NDVI, WVI,
and MNDWI,the results indicate a significant decline in vegetation health, swamp vegetation
cover, and open water extent. The result of ecosystem service valuation reveals significant
declines across all service categories. Total ESV decreased from $3.853 million in to $2.783
million, marking a total loss of $1.068 million.The result of ecosystem service gains and losses
highlighting the significant impact of land use changes.Additionally, the Coefficient of Sensitivity
(CS) analysis indicates that swamp, open water, and vegetation are highly responsive to
environmental changes, with CS values close to 1. The result shows also socio-economic factors
influencing ecosystem service changes, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. A
survey of respondents revealed strong perceptions in multiple linear regression model regarding
the impacts of land use changes, hydrological alterations, over-exploitation, socio-economic
influences and pollution on ecosystem services. Descriptive statistics indicated high agreement on
the detrimental effects of these factors with mean scores reflecting significant concerns. The
correlation and regression analyses confirmed negative relationships between ecosystem service
and the identified factors, particularly socio-economic factors, which showed the strongest
correlation. Generally,the Geray swamp area has undergone significant ecological changes,
marked by a decline in natural habitats and a loss of ecosystem service, underscoring the need for
sustainable management and community engagement.