Abstract:
Drought poses a significant threat to the Tekeze Watershed in Northern Ethiopia, affecting both agrometeorological
conditions and the socio-economic well-being of the region. This thesis aims to
comprehensively examine the severity and extent of drought occurrences in the watershed by employing
geospatial techniques, remote sensing data, and socio-economic surveys.The main objective of the research
is to assess the impacts of drought on the environment and local communities, and to provide a foundation
for the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. This research utilizes data from various
sources, including MODIS NDVI and EVI, CHIRPS rainfall, station rainfall, surveys, interviews,
observations, and crop yield data. By integrating meteorological drought analysis, agricultural drought
assessment, and socio-economic surveys, this study seeks to shed light on the causes, consequences, and
coping mechanisms related to drought in the Tekeze Watershed. Meteorological drought analysis using theSPI and PNI identified multiple drought years, including 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013-2016, 2019,and 2021-2023, with a recurrence period of approximately 2 years. The CHIRPS dataset exhibited goodcorrelation and agreement with ground-based rainfall observations. Agricultural drought assessment based
on the NDVI, VCI, and EVI confirmed deteriorating vegetation health and crop yields during drought
episodes, especially in 2004, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2021, and 2022. The drought indices were
validated through analysis of their relationship with crop yield data, with the random forest regression model
outperforming linear regression. Climate variability, land use changes, and poor water management were
identified as primary causes of drought, leading to severe consequences such as crop failure, food insecurity,
and loss of livelihoods, livestock deaths, increased poverty, and displacement. Respondents highlighted
escalating drought frequency and severity, with the most severe years mentioned as 2003-2005, 2008-2009,2012-2013, 2015-2016, and 2021-2023. Communities employed various coping strategies, including
livelihood diversification, reduced food consumption, asset selling, and reliance on community support.
However, existing assistance programs were often insufficient to mitigate the extensive impacts of drought.
In conclusion, the recurrent occurrence of drought in the Tekeze Watershed emphasizes the need for
comprehensive strategies integrating climate resilience, sustainable land management, and socio-economicsupport. Recommendations include strengthening early warning systems, promoting sustainable water
resource management, enhancing agricultural resilience, and improving socio-economic supportinterventions. By implementing these recommendations, the Tekeze Watershed can mitigate the severe impacts
of drought on the environment and local communities, fostering a more resilient and sustainable future.