Abstract:
The Lake Tana Sub-basin, located in Abay Basin, Ethiopia, where flooding, upland soil
and river-bank erosion, sedimentation, and contamination of water from agricultural
chemicals is the target area of this study. The aim of the study was: basin morphometric
characterization, development of a hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS)
models, determination of the extent and depth of flood and analysis of the effects of
climate change on the streamflow in the sub-basin. Assessment and analysis of the sub basin morphometry was done using GIS and remote sensing. HEC-HMS was used to
simulate the watershed response to rainfall and to predict the impact of climate change on
streamflow, while hydraulic modeling was performed using HEC-RAS. The performance
of the model was tested by mean relative error, NSE, and coefficient of determination
(R2
) statistical performance measures. The model is capable of capturing peak flows and
hydrograph recession curves with a reasonable accuracy of mean relative error in peak
flow values of -1.91 (Gilgel Abay), -1.49 (Ribb) and -9.31 (Megech). The average NSE
and R2
values are above 0.75 and 0.8 for all watersheds respectively. The drainage
network analysis of the sub-basin revealed that the basin is a seventh order with a
dendritic drainage pattern and very fine drainage texture. The analysis of the potential
effects of climate change on the long term monthly projected temperature (maximum and
minimum) showed an increasing trend in the sub-basin but no trend will be expected for
precipitation. The average monthly projected maximum temperature may increase from
1.42 ° C in 2050s to 2.40 ° C in 2070s for RCP4.5 scenario and the average monthly
projected minimum temperature may increase from 1.96 ° C in 2050s to 3.79 ° C in
2070s for RCP8.5 scenario. Compared to the base period, the annual outflow in the
RCP4.5 scenario also showed no significant trend (increase in the near future by 6.78%
where the rainfall is also increased by 3.97% and decrease by 1.78% where the rainfall is
decreased by 6.22% in 2070s), while an increase in rainfall by 10.57% in the near future
and a decrease by 0.81% in far future resulted in an increase in streamflow of 8.92% and
13.6% respectively for the whole time horizons in the RCP8.5 scenario. Despite
limitations and uncertainties associated with obtaining observations and measured
parameters, HEC-HMS model can be used to simulate hydrologic processes and predict
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the impact of climate change on streamflow whereas HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic
modelling in Lake Tana Sub-basin and similar basins. Furthermore, the drainage
morphometric results indicate the watershed characteristics and serve as a basis for
improved planning, management, and decision making to ensure sustainable use of basin
resources.
Key Words: Abay basin, Climate change, Flooding, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, Lake Tana
Sub-basin, Morphometry