Abstract:
Background: Diabetes is a chronic, lifelong disease that affects the ability to use food as both
fuel and energy for survival and characterized by hyperglycemia resulting from impaired insulin
secretion, insulin action, or both. Diabetic retinopathy is also a complication of diabetes and is
rapidly becoming a global health problem that can jeopardize a patient's vision and visual
function. Therefore the aim of this study was to identify the determinants of progression of
fasting blood sugar level and time to occurrence of diabetic retinopathy.
Methods: Institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted to obtain relevant data
on type 2 diabetes patients at Debre Markos referral hospital. We presented a joint model that
consists of two related sub-models: a Weibull model for the time to occurrence of diabetic
retinopathy and a linear mixed effect model for the progression of fasting blood sugar level.
Results: The prevalence rate of diabetic retinopathy was 18.2% of observations with median
follow-up time of 17 months. The slope of change in fasting blood sugar is significantly
associated with the hazards of time to diabetic retinopathy (aHR: 1.001; 95%CI: 1.003, 1.009).
The analysis also showed that older age (aHR:4.119; 95%CI: 4.116, 4.284), male
(aHR:5.037; 95%CI: 2.633, 10.496), longer duration of diabetes (aHR:3.133; 95%CI: 1.815,
5.686), higher glycemic control (aHR:2.769; 95%CI: 1.835, 4.162) were significantly associated
with a high risk of diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, increasing time, high blood pressure,
taking many medications, high Creatinine levels, and longer diabetes duration significantly
increased blood sugar levels.
Conclusion: Our study investigated the joint effect of fasting blood sugar level and time to
diabetic retinopathy, and its association with age, sex, duration, glycemic control, Creatinine
level, and HBA1C. From a methodological point of view, we can conclude that the joint model
approach provides extensive information about progression of disease and time to occurrence of
disease. We hope that our results will help applied researchers become familiar with the model,
including how to interpret the results.
Keywords: Type 2 diabetic mellitus, Diabetic Retinopathy, Fasting Blood Sugar