Abstract:
Wind is a renewable energy source that is used to generate electricity. Wind power is one
of the suitable solutions for global warming since it is free from pollution, doesn’t cause
greenhouse effects, and it is a natural source of energy. However, Wind power generation
highly depends on weather conditions. It is very difficult to easily predict the amount of
power generated from wind at a particular instant in time. Wind power forecasting depicts
how much wind power is to be expected at a particular instant of time in the days and years
to come. There is no accurate and reliable forecasting model for the Adama wind farm that
enables the forecasting of the power generated from the farm. Therefore, the main objective
of this thesis is to develop a wind power forecasting model for the Adama wind farm by
using deep learning techniques. Forecasting of wind power generation capacity involves
appropriate modeling techniques that use past wind power generation data. We have
experimented using Long Short -Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional Long Short-Term
Memory (Bi-LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) from the deep learning models. To
achieve the highest forecasting accuracy, we have collected a total of four years of data
starting from 2016-2019 with 163,802 rows with five-minute intervals. For hyperparameter
optimization we have applied grid search and random search technique. The Mean
Absolute Errors (MAE) for the experiment of the LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and GRU are found
as 0.645, 0.644, and 0.645, respectively. Similarly, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error
(MAPE) from experimental work of LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and GRU are found as 0.398, 0.388,
and 0.406 respectively. The result reveals that the model used is good enough for the
forecasting of wind power. Bi-LSTM outperforms other two techniques. Such wind power
forecasting helps energy planners and regional power providers to calculate power
production and energy generated from other sources.
Keywords: Deep Learning, MAE, MAPE, wind power, wind power forecasting