Abstract:
A dam breach has terrible effects on the economy and people's lives. One of nature's most
destructive occurrences is flooding, and some of the worst flash floods are caused by dam
failures. The goal of the present study is to analyze the impact of a possible failure–
collapse on a potentially affected area downstream of the under-construction Ajima
Chacha dam in the Amhara region, North Shewa Zone, and also assessed the flood
hazard areas. The HEC-RAS 5.0.7 hydraulic analysis software was used to study the dam
breach, and the flood wave propagation, estimate the extent, depth, and velocity of
floods, and prepare the flood inundation map in ARC GIS 10.7. The analysis was
performed using two different relief datasets of the same area: a digital elevation model
(DEM) was utilized to create the geographic information system (GIS) layers. The best-fitted regression equation for this study is (Froehlich 2008) for both scenarios, and the
peak flow at overtopping 43,595.34 m3/s, and 24,182.74 m3/s at piping flow. Different
dam breach and flood scenarios, where the water flows over man-made structures,
settlements, and agricultural lands, were also examined. The study area is dominated
mainly by two geological formations with different hydrogeological characteristics that
dictated the positioning and structure of the dam and determine the processes that shape
the geomorphology and surface roughness of the floodplain, affecting flow conditions.
The agricultural and village settlements were mixed and inundated, ranging from 2640–
3161 hectares. They will be at risk in general. In the case of Chacha town, from its total
settlement area of 347.5 hectares, 77.33 ha will be inundated or 22.25% of its total area.
In terms of hazard indicating values, 17.73ha is classified as high risk, 6.80ha as medium
risk, and 47.05ha as low risk. The results show that the impact of a potential dam break
at Ajima Chacha dam is serious, and appropriate management measures should be taken
to reduce the possible risk.
Keywords: HEC-RAS; ARC GIS; dam break; unsteady; flood mapping; Hazard
assessment; Ajima Chacha.