Abstract:
Streamflow is widely utilized in flood and drought studies, water resource management,
and planning. It was assumed constant in the past century however, might no longer be
valid due to the consequences of changes in land use land cover, climate, and structural
design. The objective of this study is to identify and model streamflow changes in Abbay
basin. The characteristics of the mean, maximum and 7-day average minimum flow series
were investigated, and the statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to
assess trends and change points respectively. The HBV-Light model was calibrated and
validated for twelve years (2002-2013), 1 year warming up period (1
st
Jan, 2002 -31
st
Dec, 2002), 7 years for calibration (2003-2009) and 4 years for validation (2010-2013).
It was observed that in August, 86.21% of the stations had the highest mean monthly
flows, while the remaining 13.79% of stations in September. The extreme observed
annual mean, maximum and 7-day average streamflow (m
3
) at Abbay at Kessie station
was (576.85, 3696.58, and 79.25) respectively. Kessie watershed was chosen for
modeling because of the significant value of trend and change point in all flow series, in
addition to the broad area of coverage. The calibration and validation, the performance
of the model for land use land cover 2002 was 0.889 and 0.78, and for 2013 it was 0.82
and 0.766 respectively. The overall mean streamflow for the Kessie watershed was
384.57mm/year for land use land cover of 2002 and 397.05mm/year for 2013. Generally
there is an increase in streamflow from land use land cover 2002 to 2013 by
141.69mm/year due to the change in land use. The result of the hydrological model is
compatible to the Mann-kendall test result. This study indicates that to know the
streamflow change in the basin, it is necessary to locate gauging stations for major rivers
lacking stream measuring stations in the appropriate locations; develop the stage -discharge relationship early; and build a database that are relevant to each task in the
basin.
Keywords: HBV, Kessie watershed, Streamflow