Abstract:
Background: Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality worldwide and one of
the most common lower respiratory tract infections that is contributing significantly to the
burden of antibiotic consumption. The objective of this study was to identify the determinants
of the progress of pulse rate, body temperature and time to recovery of pneumonia patients at
Felege Hiwot referral hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.
Method: A prospective cohort study design was used from Felege Hiwot referral hospital on
214 sampled pneumonia patients from March 01, 2022 up to May 31, 2022. The Kaplan Meier survival estimate and Log-Rank test was used to compare the survival time. Joint
model of bivariate longitudinal and time to event model was used to identify factors of
longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature with time to recovery jointly. For the
longitudinal part linear mixed effect model and for the survival part Cox Proportional
Hazard model were used.
Result: As the follow up time of pneumonia patient’s increase by one hour the average
longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature were decreased by 0.4236 bpm and
0.0119
. Rural residence of pneumonia patients are significantly decreased the average
longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature by 1.4602 bpm and 0.1550
as
compared to urban residence. Patients who had dangerous signs are significantly increased
the average longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature by 2.042 bpm and
0.6031
as compared to had not dangerous signs. Patients from rural residence were
1.1336 times more likely to experience the event of recovery as compared to urban residence.
The estimated values of the association parameters for and were -
0.4236 bpm and -0.0119
respectively and indicates that; pulse rate and body temperature
were negatively related with recovery time.
Conclusion: In this study Age, residence, danger sign, comorbidity, baseline symptom and
visiting time were found as determinants of the longitudinal measures and time to recovery of
pneumonia patients jointly. Hence, the government and other concerned stakeholders should
give due emphasis to tackle on the identified causes of delay in seeking health care for the
people with pneumonia. Health professionals are recommended to provide more attention for
pneumonia patients whose pulse rate and body temperature were high.
Keywords: Pneumonia, Joint Model, Pulse Rate, Body temperature