Abstract:
The main objective of the study is to investigate the long run and short run effect of human
capital on economic growth in Ethiopia (using educational expenditure, health expenditure,
territory school enrollment, secondary school enrollment, primary school enrollment, and
official development assistance as proxy of human capital and real GDP as proxy of economic
growth) over the period 1980-2015. This study had employed Johansen Co-integration, vector
error correction model with variance decomposition and impulse response analyses to provide
robust short run and long run effects of human capital on economic growth. The results show
that the human capital components namely secondary school enrollment and territory school
enrolment exhibit positive and statistically significant effect on economic in the long run.
However primary school enrollment, health expenditure, official development assistance exhibit
a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth of Ethiopia in the long run.
Educational expenditure has a negative and statistically insignificant effect on long run
economic growth of Ethiopia. In the short run, the coefficient of error correction term is -0.485
suggesting about 48.5 percent of the variation in the RGDP is corrected within a year from its
equilibrium level. The regression result shows primary school enrollment and official
development assistance were the variables significantly affecting the RGDP in the short run
positively. Moreover, the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis confirms a
better picture of the short run dynamics. The analysis provided that the shocks to primary school
enrollment and official development assistance have positive significant effects on RGDP in the
short run. Hence, economic growth to be sustained, government should give more emphasis on
primary, secondary, and territory school enrollment, while according on the findings, reducing
the budget of health expenditure and transfer to highly productive sectors, encourage better
investment in health by the private sector and effective use of official development assistance
lead to higher productivity in human capital and hence higher economic growth.