Abstract:
In developing countries, currency devaluation and external debt are important options to promote
economic growth described by International Monetary Fund. However, these policy packages
were not effective in many developing countries. Thus, cognizant of this fact, this study
examined the nexus between devaluation, external debt and economic growth. In this study,
Vector autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were employed. The
VAR was analyzed through impulse response function and forecast error variance
decomposition. The impulse response function and variance decomposition are used and
estimated based on annual data from NBE, MOFED, and EEA during 1991-2018. The study
found that in the long run, devaluation had expansionary effect on output but output increases at
decreasing rate. In addition, devaluation increased external debt at decreasing rate in the long
run. Moreover, in the long run, the variation of external debt resulted from variation of exchange
rate and variation of real GDP; and the variation of real GDP is resulted from variation of
exchange rate in the long run by using forecast error variance estimation. In general, the study
showed that there is long run relationship between devaluation, external debt and output in
Ethiopia. Lastly, the study recommended that devaluation is the last option to promote economic
growth of Ethiopia so that the government should give attention to import substitution strategy,
good business environment, access to infrastructure; political stability and focus on the
efficiency of exports are alternative policies to devaluation. Besides, the government should give
attention to spending on education and private investment relative to devaluation and external
debt policies.