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Abstract
Backgrounds:Food security is an enduring critical challenge in Ethiopia.
The 2015 El Ni~no drought is one of the strongest droughts that have been
recorded in Ethiopian history .
Method: The study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and
fertilizers applied on wheat and barley yield per hectare from 1987 to 2017
using an autoregressive distributed lag to cointegration approach.
Result: The mean wheat and barley yield was 13.48 and 11.47 quintal per
hectare respectively.The bounded F-test for cointegration among the variables
show evidence of a long-run relationship with a short run among climate
change, fertilizers applied and barley yield per hectare. from the F-statistic
of cointegration test there was no evidence that wheat has cointegration with
others. Average urea,precipitation and temperature have a positive signi cant
impact but average DAP and rainfall have no signi cant impact on the
amount of wheat yield produced per hectare. On the barley model in the long
run, precipitation and rain both had signi cant positive impacts and average
DAP had negative impact on the barley yield per hectare.
Conclusion:The results have implications for national and local agriculture
policies under climate change and fertilizers used to design well-targeted agriculture
adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse e ects of
climate change on the wheat and barley yield.
KEYWORDS: Crop yield; Fertilizers; climate variable;autoregressive distributed
lag; Cointegration |
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