Abstract:
ABSTRACT
The age at which childbearing begins influences the total number of children a woman bears
throughout her reproductive period. The study aimed to identify determinants of age at first birth by
using gamma shared frailty and AFT models. The data source for the analysis was the 2016 EDHS
data collected during January 18 to June 27, 2016 and includes 15683 women of the reproductive age
(15-49 years). The result showed that out of 15683 women 10274 gave birth and the median of age at
first birth was 20 years. The accelerated failure time and gamma shared frailty with Weibull,
lognormal and log-logistic baseline models were employed to analyze factors associated with age at
first birth. The fitted models were compared by using AIC. The log-logistic with gamma shared
frailty model had minimum value of AIC when compared with other models for age at first birth
dataset. The clustering effect was significant for all gamma shared frailty models. Women
educational level, religion, contraceptive use, age at first cohabitation (marriage), age at first sex,
husband/partners educational level and media exposure were found to be the most significant
determinants of age at first birth. Improving women education was an important interventionfor
extending women’s age at first birth.
Keywords: age at first birth, log-logistic, Weibull, lognormal, AFT, frailty, region.