Abstract:
Fertility is one of the elements in population dynamics that has a significant contribution
towards changing population size and structure over time. Fertility preference, defined as
desired family size or the ideal number of children is known to have impacts on the total fertility
rate and hence on the population size and structure. The main objective of this study was to
identify the most important factors affecting desired number of children among Ethiopian women
at reproductive age. The study was based on the 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey
data (EDHS). Count regression models were used to model the desired number of children
among women in Ethiopia. Results showed that the mean number of children per women was
high among aged mothers, less educated mothers, mothers from rural areas, women in the
poorest economic level and woman having no work. The highest average desired number of
children was recorded in Somali region (10.58) and the lowest in Addis Ababa city
administration (3.56). The Negative Binomial regression model was found to be the most
appropriate model for the data. The random intercept Negative Binomial regression model
showed that Women’s age, Household head, Contraception using, Wealth Index, Women’s
education, Religion, Marital status, Husband’s work, Family size and Age at first marriage were
significant predictors of the desired number of children by women at reproductive age. The study
also showed that there was a significant regional variation in desired number of children among
Ethiopian women.
Key words: Fertility rate, Desire number of children, statistical weight, EDHS, Count
Regression models, multilevel analysis.