BARLEY YIELD FORECAST USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS IN EAST ARSI ZONE, ETHIOPIA

DEREJE, BIRU

dc.contributor.author	DEREJE, BIRU
dc.date.accessioned	2018-07-18T05:25:30Z
dc.date.available	2018-07-18T05:25:30Z
dc.date.issued	2018-07-18
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/8885
dc.description.abstract	Policy makers, government planners and agriculturalist in Ethiopia require accurate and timely information about barley yield and production. East Arsi zone is by far the most important barley producing zone in the country. The manual collection of field data and data processing for crop forecasting by the CSA requires significant amounts of time before official reports are released. Several studies have shown that barley yield can be effectively forecast using satellite remote sensing data. The objectives of this study were to develop a Barely yield forecast model in east Arsi Zone derived from time series data of eMODISNDVI,actual and potential evapotranspiration and TAMSAT for the years 2007-2016.Official grain yield data from the Central statistical Agency of Ethiopia was used to validate the strength of the indices in explaining the yield. Crop masking at crop land area was applied and refined by using agro ecological zones suitable for the crop of interest. Correlation analyses were used to determine associations among crop yield, spectral indices and agro meteorological variables for barley crop of the long rainy season (kiremt). Indices with high correlation with barley yield were identified. Average Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexand rainfall have high correlation of barley yield with 74% and 93%, respectively. That means their variables are positively strong related with barley yield. The developed spectro-agro meteorological yield model was successfully validated against the predicted Zone level yields estimated by Central Statistical Agency (r2= 0.89, RMSE = 1.693 q∙ha−1and 21% coefficient of variation). Thus, remote sensing and geographical information system based barley yield forecast improved quality and timelines of the data besides distinguishing yield production levels/areas and making intervention very easy for the decision makers there by proving the clear potential of spectro-agro meteorological factors for barley yield forecasting, particularly for Ethiopia.	en_US
dc.language.iso	en_US	en_US
dc.subject	GEOGRAPHY	en_US
dc.title	BARLEY YIELD FORECAST USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS IN EAST ARSI ZONE, ETHIOPIA	en_US
dc.type	Thesis	en_US