TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF EXPORT PRICES OF LEATHER IN TANNING  INDUSTRIES: THE CASE OF KOMBOLCHA TANNERY, SOUTH WOLLO  ZONE, AMHARA REGION, ETHIOPIA.

BIRHAN, AMBACHEW

dc.contributor.author	BIRHAN, AMBACHEW
dc.date.accessioned	2017-10-23T09:52:43Z
dc.date.available	2017-10-23T09:52:43Z
dc.date.issued	2017-10-23
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/8092
dc.description.abstract	Leather industry is among the major manufacturing industry sub-sectors that Ethiopia has a comparative advantage in the export market. Analyzing the overall trend and seasonal variations in the export prices of the sector will help to make appropriate production planning. The objective of this study was to conduct time series analysis of monthly export price of leather products from Kombolcha tannery during January, 2005 to December 2016. Secondary data on monthly export prices was obtained from the tannery. Univariate time series model was used to analyze the data. The Autoregressive integrated moving average and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity approach was used to forecast monthly export prices of leather in Kombolcha tannery. GARCH (1,1) model was identified as a reasonable model to handle volatility and predict the export price of leather. Based on the fitted GARCH (1,1) model monthly export prices of leather were forecasted from January 2017 to June 2018. The forecasted results obtained from GARCH (1,1) model showed that export leather prices are expected to increase from January 2017 to June 2018 with some fluctuations as a result of volatility.	en_US
dc.language.iso	en_US	en_US
dc.subject	Statistics	en_US
dc.title	TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF EXPORT PRICES OF LEATHER IN TANNING INDUSTRIES: THE CASE OF KOMBOLCHA TANNERY, SOUTH WOLLO ZONE, AMHARA REGION, ETHIOPIA.	en_US
dc.type	Thesis	en_US