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| dc.contributor.author | Asnake, Negesse | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-09-04T07:15:29Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-09-04T07:15:29Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2026-04 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://ir.bdu.edu.et/handle/123456789/17319 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Early warning systems serve as the eyes and ears in conflict risk management. This study examines the effectiveness of the Ethiopia Conflict Early Warning System (CEWS), with a specific focus on conflicts in Ataye Town, located in the North Shewa Zone of the Amhara Region. Using a mixed-methods research approach and a sequential exploratory design, the study targeted several groups, including peace actors, security personnel, disaster risk management officials, and the communities within Ataye Town. Data were collected from 385 respondents who completed questionnaires using stratified simple random sampling. In addition, the study engaged 39 purposively selected interviewees and 32 focus group discussion participants, Qualitative data were analyzed thematically, while quantitative data were processed using percentages, means, standard deviations, the Friedman Test, and linear regression. The findings indicate that first, regarding conflict risk knowledge, vulnerability factors including unresolved victimization (90%), ethnic federalism (75.8%), informal armed groups (66.6%), resource competition (66.3%), poor law enforcement and boundary disputes (63.7%), and historical grievances (61.1%) significantly contribute to conflict, with ethnic extremism (86.1%) and firearm trafficking (58.4%) identified as primary threats. Second, concerning conflict monitoring, the study reveals a significant lack of uniform indicators among monitoring actors, with varying agreement levels across interreligious councils (76%), peace committees (61%), peace clubs (53%), and field monitors (55%), and while data were scientifically analyzed, warning mechanisms proved very weak. Third, with respect to conflict communication, the study found that communication exacerbates rather than mitigates tensions due to inaccessibility (73.7%), low media coverage (64.7%), lack of planning (54.7%), insufficient credibility (40.3%), inadequate twoway communication (45%), and polarized narratives that deepen inter-ethnic mistrust. Fourth, regarding early response actors, effectiveness varied considerably, with traditional conflict resolution mechanisms scoring highest (6.82), followed by De Jure Command Post (6.54), Security Council (6.21), Ministry of Peace (5.87), DRM Council (4.95), Security Task Force (4.78), Criminal Justice System (4.12), House of Federation (3.45), and De Facto Command Post (3.26). Fifth, concerning the effect of early warning on early response, regression analysis revealed that conflict communication, monitoring, and risk knowledge collectively account for 69% of response effectiveness, yet a persistent gap between warning and response remains, indicating that early warning does not consistently translate into timely and effective early response due to structural, institutional, and political barriers. Therefore, the Ministry of Peace should establish a dedicated Conflict Communication Department, and the criminal justice system must ensure the rule of law on the masterminds behind these conflicts. The House of People‘s Representatives should also pass legislation that integrates peace, security, and disaster risk management actors during armed conflict responses. Finally, the Police Commission, Disaster Risk Management Commission, and Ministry of Peace should collaboratively develop a conflict risk profile, a conflict mitigation strategy, and a contingency plan for Ataye Town. | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.subject | Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable Development | en_US |
| dc.title | The Effectiveness of Conflict Early Warning Systems in Ethiopia: The Case of Ataye Town, North Shewa Administrative Zone, Amhara National Regional State | en_US |
| dc.type | Dissartation | en_US |
