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In this study, a management of MSW in the city of Bahir Dar using tool of sensitivity analysis. A sensitivity analysis is used to determine how sensitive a model is to changes in the value of the parameters of the model and to changes in the structure of the model. The aim of this study is to provide system dynamics modeling for MSW generation, collection, sorting, treatment, recycling, and disposal costs of solid waste by considering four scenarios in order to maximize profits and safeguard the environment. Solid waste management uses system dynamics as a technique, and literature reviews, interviews, reports, and site observations are used to collect data. In this study, two different software packages were utilized for the investigation of the MSW system dynamics models: Stella and Vensim. This software is used to simulate four scenarios and do sensitivity analysis in order to determine which model of system dynamics is best for the MSW of the city of Bahir Dar. According to the results, the baseline scenario has a significant influence on environmental pollution, as evidenced by the 6.8 million kg of methane gas emissions and the 297,046 tons of waste that will accumulate in open landfills by 2025 E.C. Energy recovery scenario: in 2025 E.C., waste accumulation is reduced by 48%, and methane gas emissions are avoided compared to baseline scenario; instead, CO2 emissions from incineration rise linearly to 32,578 Kg, and grid electricity revenue reaches to 402 million birr. In contrast, a sanitary landfill scenario reduces methane gas emissions by 84% and decrease waste volume by 41% while treating garbage properly and appropriately. Finally, by combining the two scenarios energy recovery and sanitary landfill and utilizing their respective advantages, the accumulation of waste was decreased by 48% and 12%, respectively, in comparison to the baseline scenario and the sanitary landfill. When compared to the baseline and sanitary landfill scenarios, the methane emission is reduced from 6.8 million kg to zero, and the CO2 emission is the same as energy recovery and obtaining greater profit while reducing the impact of environmental damage. Thus, this study proposes an energy recovery and sanitary landfill scenario by taking those important opportunities into account. The contribution and uniqueness of this study in that it performs sensitivity analysis of the solid waste management parameters in the system dynamics model and illustrates the possibility of profiting from recycled MSW and reducing environmental pollution by creating alternative scenarios.
Key words: Municipal solid waste management, System Dynamics modeling, sensitivity analysis. |
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