Abstract:
Abstract
Early marriage is still widely exercised in many parts of the world chiefly in Latin America, the
Caribbean, Southern Asia and countries of Africa. Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of early
marriage in the world and Sub-Saharan Africa, ranking 18th globally. In Ethiopia the national
prevalence of early marriage was 58%. Thus, this study was aimed to identify the determinants of
early marriage among women in Ethiopia using Bayesian and classical approach. The data were
extracted from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. The study included a sample
from 9479 married women nested within eleven regions with age 15-49 years. The data were
collected using two-stage cluster design that includes selections of enumeration area as first stage
and selection of households as second stage. A two-stage model comparison was fitted to
determine the individual and regional level factors associated with early marriage. Besides, this,
the researcher has compared the Bayesian and classical multilevel logistic regression models.
This study also revealed that the prevalence of early marriage among the women aged between 15
to 49 years in country was around 58.2%. For this study Bayesian random intercept multilevel
model was found to be appropriate model in fitting the data suitably. The study, results revealed
that the predictors such as place of residence, religion of woman, educational level of women,
husband’s education level, respondents work status, wealth index and exposure to mass media and
ethnicity were found to be significant predictors for early marriage among women. The Bayesian
random intercept model also revealed that there was a significant variation in early marriage
across regions of Ethiopia. The results showed that a random effects of religion, women and
husband educational level of women is found to be significant in explaining the variation of early
marriage across the regions of Ethiopia. As a result special attention require to be committed, in
specifically to the regions’ access to education for young women to reduce early marriage and
educating women through their religious leaders is also good means of raising the age at the first
marriage. Especially it is advisable to Muslim religion leaders to delay early marriage of women
for their followers by giving basic information regards to marriage and by developing the
perception of women.
Key words: MCMC, Early marriage, Multilevel model