Institute of Disaster Risk Managements and Food Security Studies

Thesis Title: Spatio-temporal Variability and Trend Analysis of Rainfall in East Gojjam, Upper Central Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2026-09-16T07:36:57Z

Thesis Title: Spatio-temporal Variability and Trend Analysis of Rainfall in East Gojjam, Upper Central Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Jemberu, Bire Rainfall variability affects rain-fed agriculture, which relies on rainfall. But evidence of sitespecific spatio-temporal rainfall variability and trend remains limited in the study area. Therefore, this study examines the spatio-temporal variability and trends of rainfall in the Upper Central Blue Nile Basin from 1981 to 2024 using the CHIRPS v2 dataset. Coefficient of Variation, Precipitation Concentration Index, Standardized Rainfall Anomaly Index, and Standardized Precipitation Index were used to examine rainfall variability and drought events. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall, Modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis were employed for trend analysis. The Inverse Distance Weighted method was used for spatial analysis in ArcGIS v10.8. The results show highest annual rainfall occurs during the Kiremt season. However, CV values of Belg rainfall indicated greater spatio-temporal variability than Kiremt and annual totals. Also, LGP shows variability over the onset and cessation dates. The PCI results suggest a heterogeneous rainfall distribution in the annual, Kiremt, and Belg seasons. The SRAI result indicates periodic fluctuation of wet and dry years. In addition, SPI values indicated the presence of dry and wet periods with temporal consistency across all study locations in 2015. MK trend test revealed that annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall show a significant increasing trend (p<0.05) at 5, 4, and 1 locations with 3.5- 4.1, 2.3-3.7, and 1.3 mm/ year, respectively. The ITA revealed, at the lower cluster, 5 study locations demonstrated a significant upward trend in annual and Kiremt, while downward at Mota in Belg season. At the medium cluster, the majority of locations showed upward trends. In the Belg high cluster, a significant upward trend (p<0.05) was observed in 7 study locations. Therefore, despite insignificant upward trends being dominant, rainfall shows a typical shift and highlights the necessity of localized adaptation measures to protect rain-fed agriculture and improve its resilience in the face of future rainfall variability.

Food Security, Determinants and Coping Strategies: The Case of Meket Woreda, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

2026-09-04T08:49:33Z

Food Security, Determinants and Coping Strategies: The Case of Meket Woreda, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia Birhanie, Mussie Food insecurity remains a persistent developmental challenge across rural communities in Ethiopia, with the Amhara Region continuously ranking as one of the country's most vulnerable areas. The objective of this study was to analyze the food security status, determinants and coping strategies in the context of Meket Woreda, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. The study employed an explanatory sequential mixed research design, pairing quantitative household surveys with qualitative focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs). Primary data were gathered from a randomly sampled cross-section of 286 rural household heads distributed across three distinct agro-ecological zones: Dega (highland), Woigna dega (midland) and Kolla (lowland). Household food security status was computed quantitatively via the World Food Programme’s (WFP) standardized Food Consumption Score (FCS). Determinants of household food security were modeled using an multiple linear regression analysis, while the coping strategies were analyzed using the reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). The results revealed a high food insecurity with a striking 87% of surveyed households falling into either the “poor" or "borderline" food consumption categories. The overall sample mean FCS was 24.2, denoting widespread insecure dietary access. Notably, both a one-way ANOVA (F = 1.8518, p = 0.1588) and the final multiple linear regression model proved that agro-ecological placement was statistically non-significant, reflecting a "homogenization of vulnerability" where erratic macro-shocks overwhelm traditional elevation-based privileges. Econometric model results demonstrated that household size (ꞵ= 1.2469, p = 0.005) and distance to market centers (ꞵ= 0.0804, p = 0.023) exerted a highly significant positive relationship on household food consumption scores, validating the labor endowment hypothesis and localized market dependency dynamics. Conversely, being married (ꞵ= -4.5471, p = 0.042) negative impacted food security, highlighting vulnerabilities tied to high child-dependency burdens. To manage these problems, local smallholders deployed severe quantitative rationing mechanisms, with 52.4% forced into maternal/adult fasting and 50.3% utilizing portion restrictions to shield younger children. Furthermore, 39.5% of respondents identified plant pests and animal diseases as their most critical information deficit within local early warning systems. The study concludes that rural household food insecurity in Meket Woreda is structurally high across all ecological zones. Interventions must heavily on building institutional support. It is recommended that local government and development practitioners design tailored, shockresponsive social safety nets, expand off-farm livelihood diversification options to relieve nuclear household burdens, and strengthen early warning communication channels specifically covering transboundary crop pests and climate-driven livestock diseases.

Measurement and Determinants of Resilience to Drought Shock: The Case of Ebenat Woreda, Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

2026-09-04T08:40:54Z

Measurement and Determinants of Resilience to Drought Shock: The Case of Ebenat Woreda, Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia Moges, Tsegaw Drought remains one of the most persistent climate-related shocks affecting rural livelihoods in Ethiopia, particularly in areas dependent on rain-fed agriculture. However, empirical evidence on the measurement and determinants of household resilience to drought shock remains limited in drought-prone localities such as Ebenat Wereda. This study aimed to assess the drought status of the area, measure household resilience to drought shock, and identify its key determinants. An explanatory quantitative-dominant mixed-methods research design based on cross-sectional data was employed. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 245 households from three agro-ecological zones. Historical rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset for the period 1981–2025 were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI analysis revealed that 28 years (62.22%) were below the mean precipitation level, while 17 years (37.78%) were above normal, indicating recurrent agricultural drought occurring on average every 2.65 years. Extreme drought events were recorded in 1984, 1987, and 2009, whereas 1982 and 2015 experienced severe drought conditions. Descriptive statistics were employed to summarize the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the sampled households. The resilience measurement results showed that 15.92% of households were less resilient, 72.24% were moderately resilient, and 11.84% were highly resilient. The PCA identified access to basic services loading (0.909), asset ownership loading (0.649), and adaptive capacity loading (0.583) as the principal dimensions contributing to household resilience, while social safety net participation exhibited a negative loading, indicating its concentration among structurally vulnerable households. The ordered logistic regression results indicated that agro-ecological location, occupational diversification, livestock holding, landholding size, access to early warning information, indigenous climate adaptation knowledge, use of new crop varieties, adoption of early maturing crop varieties, and use of drought-tolerant crop varieties positively and significantly influenced household resilience. The study concludes that drought is a recurrent challenge in Ebenat Wereda, implying the need for policies that strengthen productive assets, adaptive capacity, climate information services, and climate-smart agricultural practices to enhance household resilience to drought shocks.

Climate-Smart Agriculture Practices and their Impact on Smallholder Farmers’ Resilience to Climate Change: The case of Gubalafto Woreda, Ethiopia

2026-09-04T07:31:07Z

Climate-Smart Agriculture Practices and their Impact on Smallholder Farmers’ Resilience to Climate Change: The case of Gubalafto Woreda, Ethiopia sete, Melkamu Ethiopia, including the study area, is highly affected by drought, floods, erratic rainfall, and land degradation, which reduce agricultural productivity, threaten food security, and weaken rural livelihoods. As a result, many households continue to experience low resilience capacity and food insecurity. However, previous studies have provided limited evidence on resilience dimensions, the intensity of climate-smart agriculture adoption, and the synergies and tradeoffs among different climate-smart agriculture practices. Thus, this study aims to assess climate-smart agriculture practices and their impacts on smallholder farmers‘ resilience and food security in Gubalafto Woreda, Ethiopia. The study employed a quasi-experimental research design using a mixed-methods approach. Primary data were collected from 355 farm households and supplemented by 3 focus group discussions and 10 key informant interviews. The data were analyzed using principal component analysis, the food consumption score, the multidimensional food security index, the multivariate probit model, and the multinomial endogenous switching regression model. The top 5 climate-smart agriculture practices adopted by households were chemical fertilizers (50%), improved crop varieties (33%), small-scale irrigation systems (27%), agrochemicals (23%), and compost (22%). Conversely, about 30% of households did not adopt any top climate-smart agriculture practice. About 44% of the households were found to have a low resilience capacity index. Lowland households demonstrated a higher average resilience score than did midland and highland households, with p values of P<0.01. About 10.42% of households were classified as food secure, 60.28% as mildly food insecure, 23.1% as moderately food insecure, and 6.2% as severely food insecure. The partial, multiple, and full climate-smart agriculture adopters improved their resilience capacity by 7.4%, 12%, and 17%, respectively. Multiple- and full-package climate-smart agriculture practices were associated with 12.3% and 34.7% greater food consumption scores (food secure), respectively, while partial, multiple, and full adopters were achieving higher quality scores of 9.7%, 16.9%, and 13.2%, respectively. In contrast, households adopting multiple and full practices had 7.3% and 10% lower quantity scores. Small-scale irrigation shows a strong synergistic effect on both food security and resilience (0.99). Compost also has strong synergy, contributing to both food security (0.72) and resilience (0.74). In contrast, agrochemicals show a moderate positive effect on food security (0.38) but create a trade-off by reducing resilience (0.19). In conclusion, despite the high levels of food insecurity and low resilience in the study area, the adoption of diverse combinations of climate-smart agriculture practices was found to improve the food security and resilience of rural households. Therefore, relevant institutions should prioritize investments in communication infrastructure, institutional support services, and social safety nets. Particular emphasis should be placed on highland and midland agroecological zones, where household resilience capacities are relatively low. In addition, stakeholders should promote the adoption of diverse climate-smart agriculture practices to strengthen household food security and resilience capacity.